Evaluate the Danger of New Flu (Swine Flu)
The three come from different viruses and carry different kinds of danger, depending on ease of transmission and virulence. As a benchmark, the deadliest influenza pandemic in the past century, the Spanish influenza of 1918 to 1919, had an estimated mortality rate of around 2.5 percent but killed tens of millions of people because it spread so widely.
The new swine flu cases are caused by an influenza strain called H1N1, which appears to be easily passed from person to person. Mexican health authorities have confirmed 149 deaths from that swine flu and are investigating the illnesses of 1,600 people, and the United States, Canada, Spain and other countries have confirmed or are investigating cases.
But doctors have little information yet on the mortality rate, as there is no reliable data on the total number of people infected. Reports from the United States suggest that some cases may be mild and therefore may go undetected — allowing the disease to spread further. Flu experts are trying to determine if this year’s flu shots, which contain H1N1 strain, offer any protection.
In contrast, the lethal avian flu that has kept world health authorities anxious for years is caused by H5N1 influenza virus. It has killed 257 of the 421 people who have contracted it, or 61 percent. But it has shown very little ability to pass from person to person, mainly infecting poultry, and some experts have suggested that there may be something about the H5N1 virus that makes it inherently less transmissible among people.
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